The future of public transport

The term 'public transport' is generally defined as trains, buses, trams, or ferries, where 1. the vehicle is large, carrying many people, 2, it runs according to a schedule that the passengers must comply with, and 3. is usually state owned and operated. But this received definition seems to exclude passenger aircraft, such as when QANTAS was owned by the state, it fit all three of those criteria, yet was not generally regarded as being public transport. Similarly long distance coaches, taxis, nor privatised implementations of the above are not usually thought of as public transport. Why public transport should be defined in this way really only suits the unions for those modes of transport and the central planning lobbies that advocate for expansion of such services.

A more useful definition of public transport is any mode of transport where the passenger does not own the vehicle they are travelling in, and pay for the journey. Thus taxis should be considered public transport too.

The benefits that taxis have over scheduled services, like trains or buses, is immense:
1. Greater convenience of operating hours, available 24/7, even in small towns.
2. Greater convenience of schedules, in that they arrive when the passenger needs them, as opposed to the passenger having to comply with the mandated train or bus timetables.
3. Superior comfort, with more comfortable seating that isn't damaged or covered in graffiti.
4. Superior safety, unlike trains that are a magnet for gangs and drug dealers.
5. For larger groups of people they can be more economical than the train or bus that requires everyone to have an individual ticket.
6. Greater flexibility of routes, in that they pick you up at your own address, and take you to the exact address you want to go to, rather than the hopeful approximation at either end that trains and buses allow.
7. Greater convenience in directness of route, no need to wait around for connecting services.
8. Greater utility, in that you can easily carry large and heavy luggage such as shopping.
9. Privately owned and operated, with the only taxpayer subsidies being for road infrastructure which is the case for private vehicles anyway.
10. No additional road infrastructure needed on top of what has already been provided by the state.
11. Unlike rail and bus, there is little likelihood of unions being able to hold the public and economy to hostage by threatening to shut services down by striking for excessive pay and conditions.
12. The passenger and taxpayer is not burdened by convoluted and poorly implemented ticketing schemes that notoriously cost far in excess of any sane expectations for what a ticketing scheme should cost to deploy.
13. Speed, a taxi will get you to your destination much faster than trains or buses.

The downsides of taxis are:
1. Relatively expensive.
2. This expense is driven up by heavy regulation of the taxi industry (often at the behest of the entrenched market players themselves).
3. The other major expense component is that there is a high labour to customer ratio, where one driver is utilised by a single passenger at a time, as opposed to trains where one driver (and support staff) may be utilised by several hundred passengers at a time.

Until now little could be done about the expense of having individual drivers working taxis, but computer controlled cars are becoming a reality, and when they are perfected it will make possible a cheap, driverless taxi service.

A major experiment in driverless vehicles has been announced: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128639246&ft=1&f=1004

Quote:
A team of Italian engineers on Tuesday launched what has been billed as the longest-ever test drive of driverless vehicles: a three-month, 8,000-mile road trip from Italy to China, not in search of silk, but to test the limits of future automotive technology.
Two bright orange vehicles, equipped with laser scanners and cameras that work in concert to detect and help avoid obstacles, are to brave the traffic of Moscow, the summer heat of Siberia and the bitter cold of the Gobi desert before the planned arrival in Shanghai at the end of October.
"What we are trying to do is stress our systems and see if they can work in a real environment, with real weather, real traffic and crazy people who cross the road in front of you and a vehicle that cuts you off," said project leader Alberto Broggi.

That their project is so ambitious, effectively crossing half the world, shows how advanced this technology already is, and the performance data they collect during this experiment will further progress again. The outcome is unavoidable as it is relentless; one day computer controlled drivers will be deemed far safer than human drivers.

Just as the taxi industry was the first to see the scaled economic benefits of hybrid engine vehicles, they too will be quick to see the scaled economic benefits of driverless vehicles, and their fleets of driverless vehicles will probably be most people's first direct experience of such vehicles.

Not only will it allow for cheaper services, but lack of human driver will free up an additional seat for larger groups of travellers.

Also, instead of subjecting the passenger to an absurd and bureaucratic ticketing system, their keycard or credit card will already be their ticket, and they can be rewarded with loyalty points for cheaper fares.

If the regulatory obstacles are swept away that block new market participants, cheaper service again can be expected. This may be harder to bring about though.

Given that this outcome is a certainty rather than a mere possibility, additional expenditure on expanding rail or tram infrastructure is very shortsighted. The most prudent strategy is to very quickly privatise all rail and tram infrastructure while it still has any commercial value at all, to get the best economic outcome for the taxpayer, while retaining ownership of the underlying land which when the train services are no longer needed, to convert into roads.

Once there are enough driverless vehicles in operation, speed limits will not have to apply to them due to their greater safety, and roads can be given over to their exclusive use so they can achieve speeds of 300km/h or greater. This will be an excellent use of rail corridors once trains are no longer viable and the tracks are ripped up.

Hence the short-term, luddite thinking of the Greens should be vigorously opposed: http://www.railpage.com.au/news-8034.htm

Quote:
GREENS leader Bob Brown has launched a light rail blueprint for Canberra as part of a plan to establish light rail in cities across the nation.
Senator Brown wants revenue from the mining tax to be diverted into fast rail to link capital cities and light rail in cities to ease congestion.

Just one more example of how the Greens offer yesterday's solutions for yesterday's problems.

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LamontCranston's picture

No.

Driving faster or with more precision isn't going to solve the basic capacity of a road.

Quote:
The carrying capacity of a freeway lane is roughly 1800 vehicles per hour, or 2000 people per hour given average vehicle occupancy of 1.11 passengers. A typical six-lane freeway therefore carries up to 12,000 people per hour in both directions. A double-track suburban railway, meanwhile, can easily support one train movement every three minutes in each direction without straining its capacity. A six-car train can carry around 1000 passengers before reaching crush conditions. Thus the rail line can carry at least 40,000 people per hour in both directions, and perhaps more depending on the signalling system and vehicle design.

Driving at 300km/h or more precisely doesn't solve the basic capacity of the physical space it inhabits.

And then there are resources consumed, and wear of driving at 300km/h.

Tigger_'s picture

Assumptions

Quote:
The carrying capacity of a freeway lane is roughly 1800 vehicles per hour

What speed does this assume? It sounds like gridlock, such as if we assume that there is six metres space from the front tip of one car to the front tip of the next car, this is 10,800 metres, or an average speed of 10.8km/h.

If computer controlled cars can increase this average speed by a factor of four, to 43.2km/h, then the equation works out as 7200 vehicles per hour, times 1.11 passengers, times six lanes, to move 47,952 people through per hour.

Ideally the former rail lines would be converted to freeways for the exclusive use of computer controlled cars, and greater efficiencies could be achieved by reserving lanes for cars that are carrying two or more passengers.

LamontCranston's picture

And now we see where this idea comes from

National City Lines, Inc. (NCL), was a front company — organized by General Motors' Alfred P. Sloan, Jr. in 1922, reorganized in 1936 into a holding company — for the express purpose of acquiring local transit systems throughout the United States. "Once [NCL] purchased a transit company, electric trolley service was immediately discontinued, the tracks quickly pulled up, the wires dismantled ...", and GM buses replaced the trolleys.
In 1938, NCL entered into exclusive dealing arrangements and obtained equity funding from companies seeking to increase sales of commercial buses and supplies, including General Motors, Firestone Tire, Standard Oil of California and Phillips Petroleum, which enabled NCL to buy out more than 100 electric streetcar systems in 45 cities including, but not limited to, Cleveland, Detroit, the Pacific Electric Railway in the Los Angeles area, New York, Oakland, Philadelphia, Baltimore, St. Louis, Salt Lake City, and Tulsa. Those systems were ultimately dismantled and replaced with bus systems in what became known as the Great American streetcar scandal.
Under Sloan’s leadership, GM systematically bought up and destroyed America’s highly-efficient electric train, streetcar and tram infrastructure, and literally burnt the vehicles. Knowing the public preferred streetcars over fume-belching buses, GM bought up America’s largest bus operator (Omnibus) and largest bus manufacturer (Yellow Coach). Manhattan was their symbolic starting point. GM acquired controlling interest in its rail system and then dismantled it (1926-1936). Bus services were decreased and mass PR campaigns were launched selling the notion that what people really wanted was cars. Thus, Sloan “motorized” America for GM.
"For Sloan, motorizing the fascist regime that was expected to wage a bloody war in Europe was the next big thing and a spigot of limitless profits for GM. But unlike many commercial collaborators with the Nazis who were driven strictly by the icy quest for profits, Sloan also harbored a political motivation. Sloan despised the emerging American way of life being crafted by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Sloan hated Roosevelt´s New Deal, and admired the strength, irrepressible determination and sheer magnitude of Hitler´s vision."